![]() ![]() As such, they, like lower stock prices, are our allies as their role in distorting stock prices and markets provide us with attractive entry points. Quantitative products and strategies, that generally worship at the altar of price momentum, know everything about price and very little about value. ![]() There is little question that the evolution of market structure from active to passive investing - which has delivered a false sense of diversification - has been a contributing factor to the pace of the recent market decline.While traders and investors remain in a quagmire of uncertainty with numerous economic and market outcomes, some of them adverse - I reminded my investors that bull markets arise from bad news (March 2009, December 2018 and April 2020) - while bear markets are borne out of good news (late 1999/early 2000, September 2007 and December 2021).In his annual Surprises feature on Real Money Pro, he said that stocks could mount a surprising rally in. The Fed is now following up with another mistake, based on ex post analysis, by tightening too aggressively. In December, hedge fund manager Doug Kass issued an unexpected declaration. And so did the TheStreet Smarts’ Todd Campbell. The monetary tide, in particular, has been "guided" by a bunch of academicians (armed with 400 PhDs) at the Federal Reserve who erroneously determined, through ex ante analysis, that inflation would be transitory - marking the single largest mistake in The Fed's 109 years of history. Hedge fund manager Doug Kass, author of Real Money Pro's Daily Diary, and Stephen Sarge Guilfoyle, who writes the popular Market Recon column on Real Money, for example, earlier in the week gave warnings about the looming risks. Warren Buffett also once said "only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." In economic terms, the transition from too easy to much tighter monetary conditions has been a tide going out, which has revealed the incompetence and lack of quality leadership of our fiscal and monetary authorities.As such, higher interest rates diminish the value of stocks, especially high growth, Nasdaq names. (DDM is a quantitative method used for predicting the price of a company's stock based on the theory that its present-day price is worth the sum of all its future dividend payments when discounted back to their present value). note yields about 4.5% - it is not only a strong alternative to equities but is an important part of the calculus used in valuing stocks in a dividend discount model. An elevated risk-free rate of return is particularly concerning. dollar and rising interest rates (" all roads lead to interest rates!") remain our biggest investment concerns. Real Money Pros Doug Kass embraces this style of contrarian thinking. Goods inflation and the prices of durables, automobiles and housing, are moderating rapidly - but wage inflation will likely remain sticky.If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our Web site send those e-mails to disclosure: On Feb 29, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders Najarian is long (AAPL) Najarian is long (INTC) Najarian is long (YHOO) Najarian is long (HPQ) Najarian is long (MSFT) Najarian is long (JOY) Najarian is long (SLV) Finerman is long (AAPL) Finerman is long (JPM) Finerman is long (HPQ) Finerman is long (NTAP) Finerman is long (GLUU) Finerman is long (IWM) Puts Finerman is long (.* Though equities are growing more attractive, as noted in my Diary's commentary over the last two months, there are existing headwinds: Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. * Doug Kass is also contributor to Jim Cramer's RealMoney Pro WebsiteĭO YOU KNOW?: Why are optimistic investors called bulls?Ĭlick here and find outin the latest installment of our Wall Street History series. “We must recognize that tops are processes – I continue to believe the risk on trade is coming to a close – some of the easy money might have ended today.” “I’m personally short all of the above and much more,” he says. Kass tells us he's shorting Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Kass suggests shorting American Express, Regal Cinemas, Henry Schein, RTHģ. In fact, he thinks 3 areas of the market are particularly vulnerable.ġ. He says all signs point to a sell-off, and Kass believes the trade is short. The Fed chairman gave no signals that further easing will be on the table. Kass believes it’s not so much what Bernanke said, it’s what he didn’t say. Kass feels even more confident after hearing Ben Bernanke’s commentary before Congress today. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |